جستجو در تالارهای گفتگو

Analytical Evaluation of Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Tehran Using GIS Original Article, A2 Jahanpeyma MH, Delavar M.R. Journal. Civil Eng. Urban. 1(1): 05-09. 2011. ABSTRACT: One of the properties of geospatial information systems is their use in supporting spatial decision making under uncertainty. It is a complex process which is considered in different situations. The existence of uncertainty in geospatial data and various analyses has the potential to expose users to undesirable consequences in their decision making. Nowadays, natural disasters, particularly earthquake, are among the most important disturbances to sustainable development of countries and governments try to manage them in an optimum manner. They would typically try to decrease the amount of financial damages and loss of lives that would occur because of the events. In this research, geospatial information science/system has been implemented to estimate the seismic vulnerability and its probable damages for a particular scenario in Tehran. We applied fuzzy logic concepts to well-known analytical hierarchical process for the damage assessment. Based on this modified approach we developed a hierarchy of effective factors in earthquake vulnerability due to definition of their priorities against a given earthquake scenario.The effect of uncertainty in geospatial data and analysis functions which are applied in estimating Tehran seismic vulnerability would affect the quality of decision making for estimating the damages. In this paper, we analyzed the implemented geospatial data of population statistics, building information, maps, digital terrain models, and satellite images in the process of studying Tehran’s seismic vulnerability. In this research, we used Monte Carlo simulation approach for uncertainty modeling. We compute the statistical parameters for seismic vulnerability in various iterations of Monte Carlo process. After that we extract the relationship between the number of Monte Carlo process and relative variation of seismic vulnerability’s layer variance. For instance, in order to achieve double precision, the number of iterations must increase four times. Keywords: Uncertainty, GIS, Seismic Vulnerability, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Monte Carlo Simulation منبع: [Hidden Content] دانلود: [Hidden Content],%20A2,final.pdf JCEU, A2,final.pdf

Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects Saman Aminbakhsh, Murat Gunduz ⁎, Rifat Sonmez Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 5 October 2012 Received in revised form 1 May 2013 Accepted 22 May 2013 Available online 6 June 2013 Keywords: Occupational health and safety Analytic hierarchy process Risk assessment Finance Prioritization Introduction: The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. Method: In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The impact to the industry: The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. 1-s2.0-S0022437513000479-main.pdf