Evidence of Low-Dimensional Determinism in Monthly Water Level Time Series in Lake Van, Turkey

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Evidence of Low-Dimensional Determinism in Monthly Water Level Time Series in Lake Van, Turkey

Original Article, B39
Daneshfaraz R, Asadi H, Saghebian SM.
Journal. Civil Eng. Urban. 2(6): 220-225. 2012.

ABSTRACT:Adequate knowledge of lake water level variations is important for proper planning and management of water resources and design of environment. In this study chaotic behavior of monthly water level variations in the lake Van during January 1944 - April 2002 is investigated. The lake Van is the largest lake in Turkey. The methods and indicators of chaos theory (power spectrum, average mutual information, false nearest neighbours, correlation dimension and largest Lyapunov exponents) were applied. The value of power spectrum (4.1) indicate that chaotic (fractal) behavior to the lake water level time series. The optimal delay time (5 month) and embedding dimension (5) are obtained from average mutual information and false nearest neighbours techniques, respectively. Optimal values are then used for the estimation of the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent for inspecting possible signatures of chaotic dynamics. The low correlation dimension (3.2) suggest the presence of low-dimensional chaos; also imply that the water level dynamics are dominantly governed by four variables. The positive largest Lyapunov exponent value (0.0085) indicated a signature of chaos. These results give a positive indication towards considering lake water level as a chaotic system.
Keywords:Chaos theory, Correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, Power spectrum, Time series, Van   Lake.

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