Dynamic characteristics of monthly rainfall in Tabriz under climate change

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Dynamic characteristics of monthly rainfall in Tabriz under climate change

Original Article, C37
Jani R, Ghorbani M.A, Saghafian B, Shamsaei A, zahabion B.
Journal. Civil Eng. Urban. 3(4):225-235. 2013

ABSTRACT:Among the factors creating the changes in climate include ever-increasing population, changes in land usage and the development of industrial activities. Thus, studying the effect of this phenomenon on hydrological processes, in particular rainfall is considered as one of the most important issues concerning water engineering. Chaos theory is a tool that can be implemented besides other methods in modeling nonlinear, complicated hydrological phenomena like rainfall, due to its wonderful capabilities. In this study, monthly rainfall in Tabriz has been studied through this theory under historical and climate change conditions. In so doing, the statistical period of 1971 to the year 2000 was considered as the historical period, and the results obtained from the model LARS-WG were also considered under two scenarios in three future periods. The results indicated that historical period data having the fractal dimension of (5.96) has good chaotic nature. In the case of scenario A2, the data of all three series had good chaotic nature as well. In scenario B1, random investigation in all three periods will be appropriate.
Keywords: Climate Change, Rainfall, Chaotic Theory, Tabriz, Lars-WG Model.

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