Estimation of Daily Discharge of Baranduz River via Chaos Theory

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Estimation of Daily Discharge of Baranduz River via Chaos Theory

Original Article, D45
Pour Mohammad Aghdam A, Asheghi R, Merufinia E.
J. Civil Eng. Urban. 4(3): 293-297. 2014

ABSTRACT: The chaotic behavior of monthly precipitation time series is investigated using the phase-space reconstruction technique and the principal component analysis method. To reconstruct phase space, the time delay and embedding dimension are needed and for this purpose, average mutual information and algorithm of false nearest neighbors are used. The delay time for Baranduz River is calculated via the average mutual information method which is equal to 66. The most suitable inscribed dimension, by use of false nearest neighbors approach, is about 28. The correlation in time series of water flow is equal to 3.1 which require at least 3 variables to describe the system. The low value of correlation in daily scale is an indication of the existence of chaos in the water flow of Baranduz Chay River.

Keywords: Baranduz Chay River, Chaos Theory, Correlation Dimension, Delay Time

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